Friday, June 7, 2013

A Thought Experiment on the Probability of Advanced Extraterrestrial Visitors

   For this thought experiment, let us first start with the once-maligned but now widely accepted idea that while not yet proven, there is almost assuredly life on planets outside our solar system and that some of that life is likely intelligent. Officially, there is no proof or evidence for this fact, but when scientists and laymen alike study the size and scope of our galaxy, let alone the whole universe, it would seem impossible for there not to be life all over the universe. 
   
   Now despite that being widely accepted, the idea that alien life could have the technology to travel across the stars with ease and would or could have visited our planet is still laughed at and mocked. But the dismissal of this idea, while also accepting that there is almost definitely life throughout the universe, is quite ridiculous. People doubt this idea because they compare alien civilizations and technology to our own and our own understanding of science. However, modern scientists are working right now on warp drive technology and other advanced propulsion systems. In fact, many modern scientific theories and theorems allow for things like time travel and space warping. So knowing this, and knowing how much of our advancements as a society, or lack there of, have been due to pure chance and luck; it would appear completely possible that another civilization out in the cosmos could have had better luck or the same luck but developed thousands of years before we did which could put other civilizations anywhere from thousands to millions of years more advanced in their civilization and technology than we are today.
  
  Let us look now at a few examples in our history of how we lost out on opportunities for large technological advancements in society. One of the most well known examples is the Library at Alexandria. This library contained the largest collection of human knowledge from all over the known world. Alexandria was arguably the first international city and the first planned city; designed and built precisely to attract the greatest minds all over the world to live and work. After many decades of existing and thriving, unfortunately a horrible fire destroyed virtually all of the scrolls and knowledge in the library and the city itself was no longer the 'idea-hub' of the ancient world. Recently discovered scrolls that survived from the library have shown that these ancient civilizations discovered mathematical and scientific breakthroughs a thousand years or more before they were re-discovered in modern times. This fact essentially means we are anywhere from 1,000-2,000 years behind of where we could have been at this point in time. Generations more of ancient people could have studied and learned there and passed on what was already known while discovering new scientific advances at the same time, but instead this knowledge was lost for a millennia.
   
   Even before Alexandria, the city's namesake, Alexander the Great had conquered the whole of the known world by the time he was in his mid-20's. Now, it is a commonly known fact that people at this time knew of steam power, but saw the technology only as a toy to spin a ball on an axis. However, Alexander was known as an ancient technophile and after conquering the whole known world, he would have of course been looking for a fast and efficient way to manage his gigantic new empire. These facts combine to quite easily toy with the idea that Alexander the Great could have encouraged the development of steam powered transportation thousands of years before it's eventual invention. This again would have drastically changed the course of human history and could have put us thousands of years ahead in terms of technology than where we are now. Unfortunately, Alexander -- like all Macedonian men -- was a party animal and while he was recovering from a life-threatening illness on his way home form his conquests, he partied too hard when he was only feeling slightly better and he fell back into his illness and died.

   Another more recent example is the case of inventor Nikola Tesla. Tesla is arguably the most genius inventor of the modern age, but due to industrial greed and corruption his more prolific inventions never saw the light of day. One particular case is his development in the early 1900's of what are now known as Tesla Coils. Tesla created these coils and combined their massive electrical voltage with various radio frequencies to create what could have been a world-wide wireless power system. Tesla's experiments with this were not theoretical; he built massive Tesla Coils and he successfully transmitted wireless power over many miles. The most famous example of this, outside is laboratory in Colorado, Tesla was able to wirelessly charge the ground and he demonstrated this to some visitors by sticking a light bulb into the soil and the light bulb lit up. Sadly, Tesla's main financier was industrialist George Westinghouse. Westinghouse had a monopoly on copper, which is the primary metal used in power lines, and as soon as Tesla demonstrated his technology and Westinghouse realized there would be no way for him (or anyone) to make money from this free wireless power distribution system, he pulled Tesla's funding and started a smear campaign to discredit Tesla and his technology. Just imagine if this hadn't happened and if 100 years ago Tesla was able to provide literally the entire world with free wireless energy. The history of 20th Century technology and warfare and people living in abject poverty could have been completely different and we could have been at least a Century more advanced right now than we are today.

   And we can go back even further in Earth's history. Remember, human beings have come very late in terms of how long Earth has supported life. Think of the dinosaurs, some of which scientists believe may have had the early beginnings of true intelligence. Dinosaurs, as we know, went extinct due to an asteroid impact. However that is largely because Earth is in a solar system with a large asteroid belt that lends itself to fairly regular asteroid impacts. Now... Imagine an Earth-like planet with early life on it similar to dinosaurs that doesn't have the huge asteroids in it's system like we have. That could mean that those dinosaur-like aliens would never have gone extinct and any intelligent species on that planet could then have had millions of years more to as advance and develop and could be way more advanced than we can even imagine. Consider that the most ancient human civilizations we know of are roughly 15,000-20,000 years old. Look at the advances from no civilization to today in merely 20,000 years and try to imagine human society in another 20,000 years, let alone millions of years. The level to which we could advance in that period of time is truly unimaginable, but would most assuredly be incredibly advanced.
   
   There are numerous examples like this I can give throughout history, sadly. But now, realize in the whole universe there are surely millions and millions of earth-like planets that are surely out there with alien civilizations that advanced on a similar path and timeline that we did. Then imagine they had a leader like Alexander who didn't die young or had a library that was never destroyed or an inventor who was able to give the world his free technological advancements. Once you do that, it becomes easy to imagine that in our galaxy alone there could be hundreds or thousands of alien races in our galaxy who at this point in time have already advanced to the point of interstellar travel. Breaking down all these small facts and these very plausible scenarios, it is easy to imagine an advanced alien race, or multiple races, that have and do visit Earth with regularity.

   And now to discuss all the claims of UFOs and alien abductions and you ask "why would aliens come all this way to only stay far away or abduct and experiment on people and then leave?" Consider how that description is nearly exactly what humans do all over the world. People devote their entire life to studying insects and their body and behavior and even insect society. We study all forms of marine, land, and air life. We hunt them down, we 'abduct' them, study them in a lab, tag them, and release them back in the wild to track. Even species from our planet that have nearly identical DNA like bonobos or chimpanzees, we abduct and dissect and cage and study. Now, imagine if we as a species in the next 50-100 years are able to travel to another planet and we find a primitive species that are the equivalent of cavemen or maybe equivalent of ancient Macedonia. We and our natural curiosity and yearnings for scientific study and understanding would absolutely try to study both the intelligent and unintelligent life on that planet and any others we find. People would devote their entire lives to studying everything they possibly could about this new life and newly discovered civilization. 

   So... When you stop yourself from immediately dismissing the idea and you consider all of these facts of history and increasingly plausible scenarios of alien life, varying time frames for life's development on other worlds, the technological progress that comes with that, and the statistical plausibility of it all due to the seemingly infinite size of the universe... then the idea that there could be advanced alien species from other solar systems in our galaxy and beyond who have visited Earth or who do visit Earth regularly, becomes far more believable and acceptable.